Nigeria's Economic Growth in the Past and possible Future

The greatest economy in Africa is that of Nigeria. Gross domestic product (GDP), which represents the total cost of goods and services generated in Nigeria, is a key indicator of the country's economic development.

In this data analysis, we will decide on the potential future of Nigeria's growth and examine some potential variables that could slow down the country's pace of development. We will also examine the role that leadership may play in the country's economy's expansion.

Below are some of the factors to look into.

Unemployment Rate:

The number of persons actively looking for work in Nigeria is expressed as a proportion of the labor force. Nigeria's unemployment rate rose from 33.30% in 2020 to 37.7 % in 2022. I conducted a thorough forecast on the likelihood that unemployment would rise. The results showed that, in the absence of action from Nigeria government, unemployment would rise by a staggering 111.84% by 2028. Despite the fact that we are already in 2023, an increase in the unemployment rate from the 37.7% of 2022 to 45.67% is expected.

Inflation Rate

Maintaining constant prices for goods and services at levels that would not be harmful to the economy is one of the fundamental aims of a modern economic system. We learned from the visualization that the inflation rate reached an all-time high of approximately 72.84% around 1995 but from 2022 Nigeria's inflation rate was 17%, up 3.71% from 2020. Inflation for 2020 was 13.20%, up 1.85% from 2019. 11.40% in 2019 was a 0.7% decrease from 2018. 12.09%, a decrease of 4.43% from 2017. There could be a decline in Nigeria's inflation rate by 2028 to roughly 8.14% from 2022's 18.90%, according to a forecast of the country's inflation rate.

Government Debt Rate

The highest percentage rate of Nigeria's national government debt was 75% in 1991, while the lowest figure was 7.30% in 2008. Between 2008 and 2023, the debt rate grew, going from 7.30% to about 35.58% at the current time. According to the forecasting projected, the debt could drop by 0.64% between 2023 and 2028 if the government takes steps to address the debt situation and find a solution.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP Billion Naira) by Sectors

According to the data analysis, there were significant changes in the GDP of each sector listed, demonstrating how Nigeria had neglected the agricultural sector, which was the lowest from 1990 to 2016, but began improving faster than the industry sector from 2016 to present. The service sector has always been the most important sector for generating high GDP in Nigeria, and according to 2022 data, we had roughly 41,352 billion naira in GDP for the service industry, 19,091 billion naira in GDP for the agricultural sector, and 14,196 billion in GDP for the industrial sector. Real Gross Domestic Product (Billion Naira)

Gross Domestic Product (GDP Billion Naira) with Net Tax on Production

GDP is most commonly used by a single country's government to assess its economic health. Because this metric is complex and subjective, it is frequently changed before being regarded a valid indicator. When GDP at 2010 Constant Basic Prices is compared to the net tax on production, we have 75,769 billion in total in 2022, excluding the net tax. Even though 2023 has not yet come to an end, there is hope for a better increase provided the government does the right thing.

LEADERSHIP FROM 1999 - 2023

Olusegun Obasanjo Matthew Okikiola Ogunboye Aremu Obasanjo, GCFR, is a retired Nigerian military officer and statesman who was President of Nigeria from 1999 until 2007. During his administration, it was revealed that he inherited a 64.90% debt from the previous government, but was able to deal with it and reduce it from 64.90% to 8.1%. In 2001 and 2005, the inflation rate was at its greatest, with 18.9% and 17.90%, respectively. He was able to address the issue that was creating inflation, and the inflation rate fell from 6.60% to around 5.40% during his presidency, and the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% between 1999 and 2007.

Umaru Musa Yar'Adua was a Nigerian politician who was president from 2007 to 2010 but died on May 5, 2010. During his tenure as President, the government debt went from 8.10% to 9.40%, a 1.3% rise. There was also a large increase in inflation and unemployment rates, which increased by around 8.3% and 1.3%, respectively.

Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan is a Nigerian politician who was the country's president from 2010 until 2015. During his presidency, he inherited a government debt of roughly 9.40%, which climbed to about 20.30% following his presidency, a 10.9% increase in indebtedness. The inflation rate fell by 4.7%, while the unemployment rate rose by 3.9%.

Chief Muhammadu Buhari is a Nigerian politician who was the country's president from 2015 until 2023. During President Buhari's tenure, there was a tremendous increase in government debt, inflation, and unemployment. Buhari inherited a 20.30% government debt from the previous administration, but it has since climbed to around 38.60%, an 18.3% increase in debt. next to the inflation rate increased from 9.00% to 17.30%, an 8.3% increase in inflation rate, and the unemployment rate increased from 9.00% to 40.60%, a 31.6% increase in unemployment.

In conclusion, we can observe that the leader and their leadership style have a large influence on the growth of any nation. Nigeria has the largest economy in Africa, but the rate at which it is dropping is worrying, and if nothing is done to solve it, we may face a recession that will take time to recover from. Remember that leadership has an impact on a country's economy, thus electing an effective leader has the potential to increase the country's economic.